TeleGeography Wholesale Market Predictions for 2005

Voice Markets

1. International VoIP traffic will exceed 40 billion minutes with more than 30% annual growth. Still, this will remain a wholesale specialist niche distinct from consumer VoIP.
2. Mobile-terminated international voice traffic will exceed 70 billion minutes, accounting for 25% of global calls but over 60% of wholesale carrier revenue.
3. Global cross-border voice revenues will remain stable at around $52bn, with continually decelerating price declines offset by modest traffic growth.

Internet Markets

4. Global cross-border peak Internet traffic will surpass 2 Tbps on annual growth of over 100%.
5. Global backbone providers will deploy 1 Tbps of additional cross-border backbone capacity around the world to carry new traffic.
6. Intra-Asian Internet traffic will grow over 200% but still account for less than 10% of all international traffic.

Bandwidth Markets

7. Long-haul bandwidth prices will decline by over 50% on newly competitive routes into Asia and the Middle East. On historically competitive routes, where prices have been in free fall several years, prices will continue to drop by 30% or more.
8. Metro bandwidth prices will only fall 25%, further widening the gap between unit costs of relatively expensive short-haul and relatively cheap long-haul circuits.
9. After years of bandwidth glut, demand will finally catch lit capacity supply on many routes, requiring upgrades on some submarine and terrestrial networks.
10. When faced with upgrade costs and cutthroat competition, some carriers will choose to leave the wholesale market entirely rather than offer capacity at prices below cost.

The analysis above is drawn from five of our traffic- and bandwidth-focused research services, including: TeleGeography, Global Internet Geography, International Bandwidth, Metropolitan Area Networks, and the Bandwidth Pricing Database.

Detailed samples, summaries, and tables of contents can be found by following the links above.

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Press Releases

shim 2005 shim
15 December
Brazil and Nigeria Fastest-Growing VoIP Destinations 10 November
International Voice Market Improving 31 October
Level 3, WilTel, and Price Stability 19 October
Quarterly Wireless ARPU Down Worldwide 6 October
TeleGeography Update: Vonage IPO 22 September
TeleGeography 2005 Colocation Rankings 7 September
International Internet Rankings for 2005 23 August
Internet Traffic Growth Slows by Half in 2005 25 July
VSNL Buys Top VoIP Carrier: TeleGeography's View 15 July
Stability in the Atlantic Capacity Market? 15 June
30% of U.S. Broadband Subscribers Have Never Heard of VoIP 31 May
U.S. Residential VoIP to Exceed $1bn in 2005 9 May
Top and Bottom Wireless Markets 28 April
PriMetrica, Inc. Acquires Singapore-based MMS Consultancy 20 April
Most Intercity Bandwidth Still Unlit 7 April
Bandwidth Demand Outpaces Price Declines 17 March
Who Still Sells IRUs? 24 February
TeleGeography Wholesale Market Predictions for 2005 16 February
High Mobile Termination Rates in Europe Draw Carrier Interest 26 January
Metro Fiber Price Exceeds Long-haul

Press Release Archive