Is the Past Prologue for LTE?

February 24, 2011

One year after the first commercial launch of LTE 4th generation mobile services, subscriber numbers remain very low. However, forecasts from TeleGeography’s 4G Research Service suggest that, as with the previous generation of 3G mobile services, a slow initial start will give way to accelerated growth.

TeleGeography projects that LTE subscriber uptake will initially be modest, as was the case with earlier 3G services. However, after the first two years, growth will ramp up quickly, topping 50 million subscribers within 4 years and more than 200 million subscribers within 6 years.

Parallels exist between the early years of 4th generation and 3rd generation mobile technologies. In both cases, the market was fragmented between two competing technology standards—WiMAX and LTE today, and CDMA2000 and W-CDMA then. Early 3G mobile subscriber growth was further slowed by the limited availability of compelling devices, a challenge that faces current LTE service providers.

3G Historical Subscribers vs. Projected LTE Subscribers

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"Both technologies suffered from a lack of suitable devices immediately after their launch, but a raft of new LTE devices is expected to hit the marketplace in the coming months. Mass-market adoption will not be far behind," said TeleGeography analyst Peter Bell.

Data from TeleGeography’s 4G Research Service is now available in the GlobalComms Database Service.

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